What does the US Government Shutdown mean for the economy

October 1, 2013

The Government shutdown means that from tomorrow government employees would not be paid for work or would have to work without pay in some cases for an indefinite time.

This means a lot of hardships for their families. Though President Obama has signed a law confirming that citizens on military duty will be paid their salaries and will continue to be on duty.

Nevertheless, what this means for the economy is that the spending power of the consumer is going to go down and so is the investor confidence. Thought the real impact of this shutdown will depend on the time for which the shutdown happens. The longer it stays the worse it is going to get. Businesses are going to shrink as the consumer spending power goes down, companies will stop new investment plans and hiring plans and this spiral will begin. This may potentially slash off some GDP points from the economy.

Now, what makes it more scary is the timing. This is because of the overlooming debt ceiling issue. When the debt ceiling will be reached is a difficult question to answer. However, according to predictions, its going to be somewhere between the October 18 to November 5 period.

If both these issues are not handled with care, it could have huge recessionary impacts on the US economy.

What it means for various US services :

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/131001/news-world/article/us-government-shutdown-what-it-means

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A view point on current run for emerging nations currencies

September 9, 2013
  1. Popular view : US QE tapering
  2. Contrary view : Shrink in consumption, leading to lower exports and hence, higher CAD. Eurozone is now running an overall surplus in CAD. They have run austerity measures and hence, the demand in the Eurozone has shrunk.

This post is in continuation to the post : https://sayantansays.wordpress.com/2013/08/26/reasons-why-the-ruppee-is-falling-against-the-dollar/


Structure of the Federal Reserve

August 28, 2013
  1. The Federal Reserve Board comprises seven governors; but, for most of its history, the Board has operated in the shadow of its chairmen, three of whom (Marriner Eccles, William McChesney Martin, and, most recently, Alan Greenspan) served for nearly 20 years.
  2. Monetary policy is, in principle, decided by the Federal Open Market Committee, which includes 12 voting members: the seven Fed governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four presidents of the other 11 regional Federal Reserve Banks (who serve on a one-year rotating basis). In practice, however, Greenspan and many of his predecessors came to dominate the FOMC.

Reasons why the ruppee is falling against the dollar

August 26, 2013
  1. India’s external deficit is 5% of the GDP in 2012-13 compared to 2.8% in 2008-09
  2. A large current-account deficit is a classic symptom of a pre-crisis economy living beyond its means – in effect, investing more than it is saving.
  3. This is where QE comes into play. It provides the means in terms of foreign investments to live a lavish life and to keep spending more. 
  4. The emerging markets including India have high interest rates, there by attracting foreign investors.

Laws of Commercial Semantics by Curt Monash and its implications on newcomers

May 26, 2012

Being new to the industry, I get to encounter a lot of new terms in everyday life, mostly related to domain that I work in. Every new terminology comes with a perception and history behind it. So, the outright challenge that I face is to understand what exactly it means and what the person using that term is trying to convey by using that term. Coming from a Computer Science and Mathematics backgroud, I have been used to a world where everything is precise and tends to be as well defined as possible with the help of equations. However, when it comes to language this where it gets much more interesting because language is always dynamic.

I understood the acuteness of the problem, when I was irritated by the random usage of algorithmic trading and high frequency trading. Another name which kept me busy for quite sometime was SOA(Service Oriented Architecture). Which software systems qualify as examples of SOA and which don’t always used to be confusing. I still don’t know whether I understand it or not :O. A similar area of hot discussion is in the names Complex Event Processing and Event Stream Processing. To the first listener it sounds cool and fashionable. However, its difficult and vague when you try to figure out what qualifies as “complex” and what doesn’t. All these examples substantiate Curt Monash’s third law, which says, “No market categorization is ever precise”.

What I realized is that every industry(finance and technology being the ones I have been involved in) has its own jargon. As the old chinese saying goes “I hear and I forget; I see and I remember; I do and I understand”, its best to understand by actually work. However, I have realized that its not possible at any particular time to do everything that you may want to. So, getting the names correct becomes important because of the history of the work and perception associated with that name. Another Chinese proverb which has influenced me a lot in this case is “The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names” .And I think that the names of things are always evolving and the beauty is to understand this evolution.

References :

The three laws of Curt Monash are :

  1. Bad jargon drowns out good.
  2. Where there are ontologies, there is consulting.
  3. No market categorization is ever precise.

You can read about them in more details here.


Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of war

May 15, 2012
  1.  How Greece could exit the euro from now on
  2. The end comes with a bang
  3. Cost of the Greek Exit
  4. The run on deposits – Bankia
  5. Nouriel Roubini – Solution 
  6. The essential guide